Monday, August 26, 2013

2013 Season Predictions

My total outlook on the upcoming season may be too grim for most viewers. Unfortunately, I fear the tone of the season will once again be "a lot more talk and a little less action." I will preface this with a positive outlook for 2014 which is the team I expect will have a great chance at winning the first NCAA Playoff. For this season, I think there has been too much emphasis on winning the BCS and not focusing on what it will take every week to get there. If you wonder why Saban is so successful, look no further than his reiteration of how important it is to only concern yourself with the next game. I think UGA has lost sight of this and will fall victim to a horrible schedule.

Clemson: 
This will be a tough opener for UGA mainly because of the availability of certain players. Having lost JHC from suspension combined with the plethora of injuries to the defense leave this young unit in a bit of disarray. While some players may or may not be back, their time in game prep has certainly taken a hit. Maybe not as big of a factor for a veteran, the new guys need these reps! We all saw the results of this kind of drama last year when it took the defense nearly the entire season to return to form.

There is a lot of hype surrounding Tahj Boyd and the Clemson offense, but perspective is needed. When you break down Boyd's performance vs top teams, his efficiency and production drop from near the top of the nation to about 75th. The key to UGA wining this game, in my opinion, is the pass rush. If they are able to pressure Boyd enough to make him uncomfortable then it will take pressure off of the secondary. The young defense will probably make some good plays and place pressure, but they will be inconsistent. Lack of experience and discipline will give Boyd a few big scrambles and a few mistakes will lead to Clemson big plays.

I think UGAs offense will be successful, and the defense will play decent minus a few homeruns. Clemson will not be able to sustain drives, but they will hit several big plays and stay in this game. Special teams will also be the factor that helps Clemson pull off a close win. UGA 34 Clemson 38.

South Carolina:
Damage control will be the name of the game. UGA will have sustained a serious blow, but will still be in the mix. Unfortunately I think history will repeat itself. The inexperienced defense will feel the wrath of the Ol' Ball Coach and So Car will hit too many big plays. In a struggle to keep up, UGA will become one dimensional like last season and Clowney will wreak havoc. The more hits he delivers, the more fired up their defense will become. The UGA fanfare will head for the gates by halftime. After a bag of mistakes, UGA will be too far out of the game to come back despite a valiant second half effort. Georgia 20 So Car 31.

North Texas:
I think this will be an ugly day game, but UGA will of course prevail in the second half. UGA: 48 North Texas 17

LSU:
UGA will now be looking to get back on track. As many people have adopted the term "Clemsoning" to mean falling well short of expectations, "Georgiaing" would certainly mean putting yourself out of the mix early only to rebound and dominate to finish the season as the best team NOT playing for the BCS NC. This season should be no different, but LSU will be harder than I think most people anticipate. Despite losing a lot of underclassmen, Les Miles is always a competitor and this one will be no different. Chavis has been assembling championship defenses since when most of these guys were wearing diapers. They certainly won't let this one get out of hand. I think it will be a crazy game and come down to the 4th quarter where UGAs depth and Mettenberger's mistakes will put Georgia in the driver's seat. UGA 27 LSU 21

Tennessee: 
This is my trap game for the season. UGA better be ready for this one! I think UGA will be in a daze after their Sept. schedule and UT will make it a game early, maybe even jump out to a big lead early. I think UGAs depth should be the biggest factor here and hopefully they can keep it together to rally in the second half. It will be interesting to see how UT performs under a new regime, particularly on defense where they do have some star players. My intuition tells me that they will not quite be able to put the pieces together this year. If Bobo can stick to what UGA does best and balances the run with the pass, UGA should pull away late. UGA 42 UT 35

Mizzou: 
Again, UGAs depth will be the biggest factor. Mizzou should have a tough time stopping our offense. UGA should be able to pound the ball consistently. Mizzou does have some playmakers and I think Dorial Green Beckham will make a few big ones.  UGA 42 Mizzou 24

Vandy: 
I think our defense will be coming together by this point and I don't think CTG has forgotten his hatred for Vandy. The defense will once again shine here. If UGA can put Vandy out of the game early, they should roll comfortably here. Let them stick around, you might get shocked! I will put my trust in CTG's fury. UGA 41 Vandy 13

Florida: 
The big one! This will probably be the game to determine an SEC Title berth or not. I see Florida as a dark horse this year. I don't think they will make it pretty, but they will be tough to beat. I see a 2 loss team, mainly because of their tough schedule. As always, I think this will be an ugly game. Murray will certainly want to silence critics here, but it is going to be tough against a gritty UF defense. Purifoy will certainly make some big plays, perhaps on both sides of the ball. If Driskel can manage the game and not make big mistakes, they could easily win this game. In the end,  I think our defense will play well enough. The key in my mind is Gurley/Marhsall are needed in a healthy dose to grind down their talented, but not deep, defense. If they can do that, UGA will  escape this one. UGA 24 UF 21

App State: 
No contest here. UGA 52 App State 21

Auburn: 
This one may also be tougher than people expect. I don't think Auburn will quite be there yet. The offense should have no trouble scoring and, if they play as they should, UGA escape by a healthy margin. UGA 45 Auburn 17

Kentucky: 
UGA should roll here. No reason to let Kentucky in this game. UGA 42 Kentucky 13

GT: 
Again, hatred and depth prevail. The defense is well-built for the GT option and should not have much trouble. UGA 35 GT 13

SEC Championship:
I think UGA will probably make it back despite losing to So Car, but not in the same situation as last year. They will probably be in around #8-10 playing #1 Bama. I don't think it will be as pretty as last year. Bama's offense will pound our young defense with strength and speed. Our offense will probably play decent, but they won't be able to keep up. UGA 24 Bama 38

Bowl Game: 
Rematch with Nebraska or Michigan, UGA wins one last one for Murray. UGA: 34 Big 10: 24

The Most Controversial Topic in Football

After seeing the eternal hype bestowed upon Alabama in the media, I decided to take on perhaps the most controversial topic in football for my first post: Gurley vs. Yeldon.

As a Georgia fan, I knew there would be quite a hurdle to jump to convince me that there is a better RB in college football than Todd Gurley. So how do you be objective and non-biased? Well, I went to the game film.

I decided to break down what I personally saw in each RB by category.

Speed
This was a tough one. I am not a big "40 time" person, so that doesn't interest me. What I wanted to see was "game speed." What I see in both backs is a very impressive high top-end speed for their size. I would give a slight edge to Gurley in top speed, but what stood out as a difference to me was acceleration. Yeldon seems to have a bit more acceleration than Gurley, but I also think part of it was the gaping holes Yeldon had whereas Gurley had to be a more patient runner. Edge: Yeldon.